For the period covering February 1 - February 28, 2026.

Global Perspective

Conflict to Crude: Oil Becomes the Message

The month of March opened under the shadow of escalating tensions following the U.S. strikes on Iran. While Iran is a small slice of global GDP (<1%), its geography looms large: About 20% of the world’s daily oil and liquefied natural gas shipments move through the Strait of Hormuz, a bottleneck that often jolts markets when risks arise. Oil markets reacted quickly as distressing headlines and major regional production cuts from Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait hit the newswire—with Brent crude oil briefly surging to ~$120 per barrel before retracing toward ~$100, on top of an already steep 30–35% YTD rise in benchmarks. As a reminder, Brent sets the tone for the global price of crude oil, making it the key energy indicator. 

Markets framed this primarily as an energy-driven inflation shock rather than a systemic credit event. The U.S. 5-year breakeven inflation rate—which reflects the market expectation for inflation over that period—climbed from 2.27% at year-end to 2.57% as of March 9th, and got as high as 2.62%, prompting investors to dial back expectations for near-term central bank easing. Credit spreads have widened modestly—a sign investors want more yield to hold riskier bonds—but remain orderly overall, with the path of oil now the key swing factor for both stocks and bonds. 

Importantly: Geopolitical shocks have historically tended to be sharp but short-lived unless they interrupt major economic infrastructure—a reminder to stay disciplined and diversified in investment portfolios during periods of headline-driven volatility.

Flight to Safety, Not to Exits

As energy volatility rose, investors gravitated toward the U.S. dollar and gold, often perceived to be safe havens, while silver lagged given its higher industrial sensitivity. The Treasury yield curve flattened as the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries narrowed—reflecting a more cautious growth tone as the market debated the Fed’s next move. 

Equities Overview

From Mega‑Cap Growth to “Cash Flow You Can Touch”

During the month of February, leadership rotated away from mega-cap technology and toward cyclical, defensive, and value-oriented sectors. While “hard assets” like energy, utilities, materials, and industrials posted solid gains, they were overshadowed by broad weakness in large-cap tech, financials, and communication services. The net result was a modest decline for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 down 0.8%. However, while Technology was one of the worst sectors in the S&P 500 Index during the month of February, it’s been the best performing sector so far in March.

AI’s Second Act: From Enthusiasm to Earnings Math

AI remained a dominant theme—but the markets moved from narratives to numbers. In other words, investors started focusing less on headlines and more on hard data. Two developments, in particular, put pressure on large-cap tech and software-dependent businesses:

1. The software selloff that began in January extended into February, as investors started rethinking whether AI might change how much software companies can charge, how expensive it is to run AI features, and what that means for their profits.
2. Hyperscalers—large cloud-computing providers like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud—had larger-than-expected AI capital expenditures, raising near-term free-cash-flow concerns and scrutiny of returns on invested capital across the “Mag 7” tech leaders. 

Taken together, these dynamics weighed on the stock price of software, data, and payment companies—especially those perceived to face competitive pressure from rapid advancements by companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. This was the major contributing factor to the Nasdaq having its worst month in nearly a year (down 3.3%).

U.S. vs. the World: Leadership Broadens Abroad

Global equities outperformed in February, with Europe hitting new all-time highs and APAC demonstrating broad strength. Less concentration in mega-cap tech stocks, resilient earnings, and supportive currency dynamics contributed to the divergence from performance in the U.S. However, we witnessed a bit of a reversal in March, as the U.S. dollar strengthened and the conflict in the Middle East impacted global markets. Despite this reversal, we continue to advocate that spreading exposure globally can improve portfolio balance over the long term.

Fixed Income Overview

The Curve Calls the Shots

In February, a softer-than-expected inflation point, and concerns about AI being disruptive and deflationary, led investors to longer-dated Treasuries—resulting in the 10-year Treasury yield ending the month below 4%. The early weeks of March saw a reversal as the curve still flattened, but escalating oil prices led to inflation concerns, and the front end of the curve rose more than the long end—reflecting market expectations for fewer rate cuts in the near term.

Carry Still Carries

Despite credit spreads widening from historically tight levels—meaning investors are now asking for higher returns in exchange for holding slightly greater risk—global corporate bonds and securitized assets still delivered solid gains. This acted as a good reminder that steady income (carry) often outweighs small price declines. And where spreads did widen, it was a normal valuation adjustment—not a sign of stress—with markets trading smoothly throughout.

Reading the Rate Signals

We’re closely watching three factors: 

• Energy Effect on Inflation: The longer that elevated oil prices hold, the higher the odds that inflation—and therefore interest rates—get pushed higher.
• Central Bank Course of Action: Markets have already pushed back near-term easing, and a prolonged oil shock could nudge expectations for the terminal rate—the Fed’s stopping point—to be higher for longer.
• Term Premium Behavior by Investors: If geopolitical uncertainty lingers, investors may keep demanding extra compensation for holding long-term bonds. That could keep long-term yields from falling as much as they normally would when economic growth slows.

Alternatives Overview

Private Credit: Headlines Don’t Equal Haircuts

Negative news flow around Blue Owl, one of the largest private credit managers, weighed on investor sentiment—largely because the private credit sector has grown so quickly that any noise garners attention. The sector also garnered headlines about large quarterly redemption from other prominent direct lenders like BlackStone and HPS. But public credit markets remained steady, generating solid income that offset volatility and drove returns—even in light of the modest spread widening. The takeaway: This isn’t a reason to step back from private credit, but a reminder to stay selective—prioritizing high-quality lending (strong underwriting), with good diversification (across years), and tight documentation (with strong protections in place).

Real Assets: Momentum from Energy, Stability from Gold 

Real assets—like energy infrastructure, certain materials, and industrials—benefited from both the shift toward value-oriented sectors and the support from higher oil prices. In terms of precious metals, gold helped stabilize portfolios during the rising geopolitical tensions and uneven inflation, while silver was more volatile since it’s tied closely to industrial demand. For long-term investors, the key is distinguishing cyclical pop-ups (short-term boosts) from structural shifts (lasting trends). Themes like energy grid upgrades, utilities supporting data‑center growth, and infrastructure modernization are multi‑year opportunities, not just temporary hedges (short-term trades).

A Look Ahead

Three Macro Levers to Watch (and Why They Matter)

1. Oil’s Path and the Strait of Hormuz: This is the single biggest near-term swing factor. A sustained shackle on supply would keep inflation expectations elevated, complicate central bank easing paths, and weigh on consumer real incomes. Conversely, diplomatic progress or emergency oil reserve releases could relieve pressure and stabilize both rates and risk assets—anything that tends to move up or down based on investor sentiment and economic growth (including stocks).
2. Big AI Spending’s Effect on Future Profits: Investors will be listening closely to tech management teams for signs of more disciplined AI spending and clearer plans for companies to make money from AI—whether through tiered features, usage-based‑ pricing, or bundled offerings. The market is shifting from a “build it and they will come” mindset to a “prove the returns” mentality. Companies with strong competitive advantages, efficient AI deployment, tangible productivity improvements, and healthy balance sheets are best positioned to lead the next phase of the AI revolution.
3. Curve Dynamics and the Global Growth Picture: A flatter yield curve offers a modest boost to longer-duration bonds, but the balance between steady economic growth and energy-driven inflation remains delicate. At the same time, leadership outside the U.S.—particularly in Europe and APAC—deserves attention. If earnings strength broadens beyond U.S. markets, globally diversified portfolios may continue to benefit from a more balanced regional mix.

Portfolio Playbook: Balance, Selectivity, and Discipline

We continue to emphasize that the following factors within an investment portfolio are key to navigating the current state of the markets and economy: 

• Balancing Growth with Quality Income: Keeping core fixed income allocations to investment-grade credit and high-quality securitized helps maintain steady income to offset any modest uptick in credit risk premiums.
• Leaning Into Select “Hard‑Assets”: Investing in cyclical assets like energy, utilities, materials, and industrials can provide diversification and cash‑flow visibility—assuming capital is used wisely and invested only where returns are strong and measurable.
• Staying Selective in Tech: The AI theme is durable, but near-term winners will pair transparent monetization with prudent capex. Companies that provide the infrastructure behind AI—like data centers, power, and networking—may see more stable fundamentals, while software companies are still adjusting to new valuation expectations.
• Maintaining a Hedge Sleeve: Intermediate Treasuries and gold help buffer economic growth and policy uncertainty during geopolitical flare-ups and factor rotations (shifts in which types of stocks the markets favor).
• Re-Embracing Global Diversification: With Europe at all-time highs and APAC showing relative strength, global exposure helps reduce concentration risk tied to U.S. mega-cap leadership.

Overall, market action was less about abandoning AI and more about renegotiating the terms—against a backdrop where oil once again had the power to reprice inflation risk. As leadership rotates and valuations normalize, portfolios that blend high-quality income, targeted real-asset cyclicals, and disciplined tech exposure are well-positioned to navigate the crosscurrents. In a market that’s shifting from headline narratives to cashflow realities, being selective when investing—and sticking to a process—matters more than ever. 

Advisory services offered through Wealth Enhancement Advisory Services, LLC, a registered investment advisor and affiliate of Wealth Enhancement Group®.

This information is not intended as a recommendation. The opinions are subject to change at any time, and no forecasts can be guaranteed. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor's specific circumstances. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

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