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Strategy Newsletter – 4th Quarter 2026

The concern was that one of these catalysts would lead to layoffs. Although job growth has been low, so is the breakeven level needed to keep unemployment steady. Surveys show that jobs are harder to find than they were a few years ago. Historically, unemployment would be expected to move higher from here.
Investing

The Dollar May Be the Pressure Valve

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made headlines last week when the Treasury announced plans to increase its purchases of longer-term government bonds. The goal is to improve trading in the bond market and ease some of the pressure pushing long-term interest rates higher. Bessent also said the Treasury has a “big toolkit” and could expand its purchases beyond the amount first announced.
Investing

Big Picture Charts in a Noisy Market

Profit margins have been rising sharply, but the gains have not been evenly spread across the market. Much of the strength has come from technology, especially semiconductor companies. Strong demand tied to artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and data centers has helped these businesses maintain strong pricing power and higher margins.